Release Notes

v2.4.0 - January 17, 2020

Features

• Vastly improved the Projected Standings pages, which now look like real, actual standings tables! Complete with Games Back in the division and Wild Card race, and runs score/allowed and differential.

v2.3.1 - January 16, 2020

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Caching has now been implemented for the entire site, so all pages, but especially the Top Tens and Team pages, will load faster.

v2.3.0 - January 13, 2020

Features

• Initial Vegas Numbers have been added, and the first Vegas Number Confidences of 2020 are live!

v2.2.0 - January 9, 2020

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Rookies now count! Not most of them... but guys like Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, Jesus Luzardo... they now factor in to their team's coming season.

v2.1.1 - January 6, 2020

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Nightly tasks set up

v2.1.0 - January 6, 2020

Features

• The first simulation of the 2020 season has been run and Projected Standings pages and Team pages are updated

v2.0.0 - December 16, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Prepared for the 2020 season!

v1.8.2 - November 10, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Removed references to picks in preparation for 2020 season

v1.8.1 - October 3, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Removed User Accounts

v1.8.0 - September 30, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Turned on all auditing for Standings and Vegas Confidences for 2018 and 2019 seasons.

v1.7.0 - July 26, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Major alteration to the pick generating algorithm. The certain result is that the THOME system will pick fewer games. The hopeful result is that the win percentage and ROI will go way up.

v1.6.3 - May 17, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Added Return on Investment total to Pick History page (based on selected filters).
• Added the ability to filter Pick History by whether a bet was on a Favorite or an Underdog.
• Added Quick Filters to see performance over the last 7/30/60 days.

v1.6.0 - May 6, 2019

Features

• Filters now exist for Home/Away side, Team, Month, Plus EV status, and arbitrary "since date" drilldowns on the Pick History page

v1.5.0 - April 16, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Player IMPACT is now adjusted based on current season performance.

v1.4.0 - April 13, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Expected win percentages for daily lineups-- the number we use to determine team's True Chance To Win on a given day-- are now being adjusted up or down based on the season's actual results. This is being done in such away that the current season accounts for as much of the calculation as has transpired. Halfway through the year, the current season will count for 50%, by the end of the year only actual results will be used.

v1.3.0 - April 5, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• The first week+ of the season has been... rough, to say the least. This release tweaks some of the THOME algorithm, as we try to learn from the picks the system has been making, and what has been winning and what has been losing.

v1.2.0 - March 27, 2019

Features

• Just in time for Opening Day! Now each THOME pick comes with a table of bet sizes for alternative offered odds. Your book isn't offering the odds we found? Play with confidence, THOME has you covered!

v1.1.0 - March 27, 2019

Features

• Pick Performance History: Now, every pick that THOME makes will be recorded on the Pick History page (located under the Data dropdown in the nav bar). Both a handy chart and a table of all picks will update automatically as games end. It's all about transparency!

v1.0.0 - March 22, 2019

Features

• THOME is now ready for the start of the 2019 MLB season! Pick emails went out to subscribers for the two games in Japan this past week, but now the system is fully automated and running around the clock, ready to alert all THOME subscribers when games begin on March 28!

v0.14.0 - March 14, 2019

Features

• We're now accepting user registrations! Sign up now to be ready when the season starts

v0.13.3 - March 11, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Positional Top Tens page now has a breakdown by league

v0.13.2 - March 9, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Each team's Vegas Number is now updated automatically and on a daily basis

v0.13.0 - March 5, 2019

Features

• We've added a Positional Top Tens by IMPACT page. See who IMPACT predicts will be the top ten offensive and defensive players at every position (Pitchers only by defense; DHs only by offense)

v0.12.1 - March 4, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Localized player images to improve performance, fix mixed-origin content issues, and to lay off mlb.com's bandwidth

v0.12.0 - March 2, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• IMPACT now attempts to normalize some of its volume-dependent qualities by looking at a player's past performance per 162 games as its starting point for projecting future performance

v0.11.0 - March 1, 2019

Features

• 0.11 marks a major update to the THOME model, as the system is now smart about who is a starter-caliber player for each given team, based on projected depth charts from MLB.com. Projected Starters will have an order of magnitude larger effect on their teams (whether leaving or joining) than other players. This will hopefully be the last major algorithm change before the start of the 2019 season

v0.10.2 - February 26, 2019

Features

• Team Dataset pages now show the team's top hitter, fielder, and pitcher by 2019 projected IMPACT

v0.10.0 - February 26, 2019

Features

• THOME now uses projections of our own proprietary player value metric, IMPACT (the Individual Measurement of Performance As a Component of THOME) to predict value gained and lost from players moving teams. IMPACT is a runs-scale metric, and has both an Offensive and a Defensive version.

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Thanks to IMPACT, THOME now factors fielding runs in an effective way.

v0.9.4 - February 22, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Fixed an error in the model that was OVER-counting fielding runs. It's a work in progress, folks
• In an attempt to normalize projected wins over time, we now take the average of the 9 most common outcomes of the Monte Carlo simulation, rather than the single most common, as a team's official "projected record"

v0.9.2 - February 19, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Fixed an error in the model that was under-counting fielding runs when projecting a team's Runs Allowed

v0.9.1 - February 11, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Significantly improved the performance of the Vegas Number Confidences pages

v0.9.0 - February 9, 2019

Features

• You can now see Projected Standings and Vegas Number Confidences for 2018. THOME has "projected" that season using the exact same methodology as 2019, and on those pages, we compare THOME's output to what actually transpired. Which Over/Under bets would have won, and which would have lost? What was the delta between the record that THOME projected for a team, and what that team accomplished on the field? Now you can find out!

v0.8.0 - February 8, 2019

Features

• THOME Projections now works as a full-featured PWA
• You can now enter your own "Vegas Number" on the team datasets pages and get an updated confidence that THOME thinks that team will be Over or Under that number. Your sportsbook doesn't offer the number we have listed for a team? Check the number they are offering action on! See what THOME thinks each team's chances are to break the 162-game season win records (43 or 116).

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Refactor entire codebase to allow for multiple season projections
• Respect browser Do Not Track setting

v0.6.0 - February 5, 2019

Features

• Added line charts of historical simulated win totals on each team page, so you can see changes over time (as players change teams or projections are updated)

v0.5.0 - January 25, 2019

Features

• Added FAQs, Privacy Policy, Terms of Service, and links to the site's Uptime Status an a Support email address

v0.4.2 - January 23, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Optimization of the Monte Carlo simulation has reduced runtime by ~97%

v0.4.1 - January 17, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Vegas Number Confidences can now be found on their own index page

v0.4.0 - January 17, 2019

Features

• New Team Datasets pages now include the current (though, manually-maintained) Vegas Win Totals Over/Under number for each team, and THOME's confidence level that the team will hit under or over that mark.

v0.3.0 - January 15, 2019

Features

• THOME now simulates the 2019 season 100,000 times to get the most accurate prediction possible
• Team Win Distribution charts show all the simulated outcomes for each team and how often THOME predicted each outcome

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Projected Standings now reflect the most-common result for each team during THOME's simulations

v0.2.3 - January 11, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• THOME now lives at its own domain: thomeprojections.com!

v0.2.2 - January 10, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Fixed all logos and headers to remove references to "The Runline"

v0.2.1 - January 3, 2019

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Correct a portion of the player import script that may have missed some minor leaguers

v0.2.0 - December 28, 2018

Features

• Added Release Notes!

Bug Fixes & Improvements

• Set up THOME for the 2019 MLB Season (projections still incomplete)
• Set up CI/CD for future development